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🔮 Forecast Demand From Your Own History

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Forecast Demand From Your Own History

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We plan by assuming next month looks like last month and it never does. Build me a demand forecasting app. Take my own historical demand, whether that is orders, jobs, visitors or units, by period and by category, ideally across at least two years so seasonality is visible. Produce a forecast for coming periods as a range rather than a single number, showing the underlying trend and the seasonal pattern separately. Let me record assumptions and known future events such as a promotion, a lost customer or a new site, as adjustments with a note, so the forecast can be argued with. Record every forecast made and later compare it against what actually happened, reporting accuracy over time. Add an AI agent that explains in plain language what is driving the forecast, which periods carry the most uncertainty, and where our forecasts have historically been biased in one direction so I can correct for it. Automate two things: a scheduled monthly forecast refresh, and an alert when actual demand falls materially outside the forecast range. Two logins: a planner who maintains assumptions, and an owner who reviews.

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01 / Spark - intelligence awakens

Forecast Demand From Your Own History

Forecast demand from your own history with seasonality, stated assumptions, ranges, and measured forecast accuracy.

// the spark catches · intelligence awakens · the answer unfolds

Most forecasting is last month plus a bit. This uses your own history including seasonality, states the assumptions, and shows how wrong the last forecast was.

What's Included

  • A forecast from real history including seasonal pattern.
  • Assumptions stated so the forecast can be argued with.
  • Accuracy of past forecasts measured rather than forgotten.
  • An assistant that explains the drivers behind it.

How To Use

  1. Use at least two years where you have it, so seasonality shows.
  2. State assumptions. An unexplained forecast is not trusted or improved.
  3. Measure past forecast accuracy. It is the only way it improves.
  4. Forecast a range, not a single number.

Turn it into staffing with seasonal labour planning, and into stock with purchase order automation.